Quarterly Newsletter 6/30/2022
July 7, 2022
As I pen this letter July 4th, 2022, our country celebrates its 246th year as an independent nation. Our country has such a rich history of important events, people and culture and I think many times it gets overshadowed or even forgotten by current events. Just a few weeks ago, my family and I had the opportunity to explore Boston and learn more about America’s rich history. We decided the best way to torture our children, I mean teach our children about American history was to do a four and a half hour walking tour along the famous 2.5-mile Freedom Trail. After a 7:30am wake up call, we dragged, I mean walked the kids over to Boston Common where we met Josiah Quincy Jr. all decked out in his revolutionary garb and three-pointed hat. For those of you who don’t know, Josiah Quincy Jr. was not the 6th president of the United States, that was John Quincy Adams, this was Josiah Quincy Jr. the mayor of Boston from 1845-1849 (bonus points if you knew that). Why our guide chose this guy over all the other important heroes of the American Revolution is beyond me. But that’s who he chose. In all honesty, he could have told us he was Captain Hook, and I would have believed him. I was too tired to care.
Our first stop on the tour was Granary Burying Ground. The tombs of John Hancock, Ben Franklin’s family, not Ben, Paul Revere and Samuel Adams all reside here. Across the street from the cemetery was a bar and the tour guide said, this is the only place in Boston where you can enjoy a cold Sam Adams while watching a cold Sam Adams. Ouch! Our next stop was King Street, the site of the 1770 Boston Massacre where 9 British Soldiers killed 5 protesters who were protesting Britain’s unpopular Parliamentary legislation. “No taxation without representation!”
Our next two stops were Paul Revere’s house and the Old North Church. Paul Revere’s house was just an old house we didn’t get to go into. Boring. The Old North Church was cool because it served two very important functions. It was the location from which the famous "One if by land, two if by sea" lanterns are said to have been raised. At the time, the church was the tallest building in the area. This made it ideal for rebels to hang lanterns to signal the Revolution Army the British Army was coming. One lantern raised if the British were coming by land, or two lanterns to be raised if coming by sea. Two lanterns were raised that night warning the Revolutionary Army to get ready for an invasion by sea. The Old North Church was also the starting point of Paul Reveres famous midnight ride. What is interesting about Paul Revere’s famous ride is he gets all the credit as a result of the Poem titled, “Paul Revere’s Ride” by poet Henry Wadsworth Longfellow. In reality, Paul was helped by numerous other individuals who spread the word by both horseback and by foot but didn’t get any credit. If that poem were never written, nobody would know who Paul Revere was.
So, if you haven’t fallen asleep already, you may be asking yourself, Craig, why are you giving me this boring history lesson? Well, first, I love history. Second, I think learning about history is important because it guides your decision making for the future, especially financial decisions. From 1973 to 1981, the United States inflation rate averaged 9.03%1 per year hitting a high of 14.8%1 in early 1980. Today, the inflation rate is running at 8.6%1. In 1973, the S&P 500 began the year valued at 119.102. By the end of 1981, it stood at 122.552. This is not a good return on your money. If history repeats itself, we could find ourselves in a situation of a lost decade for equity returns. On a more positive note, I would like to share with you the average annual returns of a large cap growth portfolio following a recession for the past 6 years. August 1982: +62.2%3: December 1987: +18.1%3 October 1990: +36.4%3 October 2002: +35.5%3 March 2009: +68.1%3 and March 2020: +85.3%3. As you can see, these are returns you do not want to miss. I know it is hard to see the recent negative numbers on our quarterly reports, but we need to stay invested, stay diversified and trust the capital system that has created massive amounts of wealth and prosperity the past 230 years.
Craig Rosenblatt, CPA
California Insurance License #0E18620
3-Cetera Investment Management, Morningstar, Russell Investments
Returns shown are total returns including dividends.